Summer 2007 Forecast

For those that didn't notice, Spiderman 3 came out two weeks ago, arguably breaking records for weekend release. However, one big record-breaking movie doesn't mean it's downhill for this summer movie season. This summer, we have a series of trilogies, among others. Spiderman 3, Shrek 3, Pirates of the Carribean 3, The Bourne Ultimatimum, Rush Hour 3, and Ocean's Thirteen round out the third installments coming up, just about all of them expected to round out as there second installments did (that's bad news for RH3). On top of these, we have the next Harry Potter, Transformers, Live Free or Die Hard (Die Hard 4) and Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer.

So, what does all this mean?

First, all of these are going to do as their second installments did, give or take. Spiderman 3 left with a cliff hanger. Those that saw Spidey 2 will most likely stay around. Those that didn't might come for the fan-favorite Vemon. The trailers for Shrek 3 show that Dreamworks and Universal might have learned from their mistakes in Shrek 2: That people would prefer a more family film, and Shrek needs the parents approval to get the kids in the theater. Bourne is, well, Bourne, and as Tom Clancy and Bond aren't stepping on his toes this summer, Damon will pull together the spy caper. Rush Hour 3's trailers look as promising as its second, although we might have had enough of Tucker and Chan. Ocean's Thirteen is pushing patience. Highly-stylized films can only go so far in sequels, and 13 is as far as they've gone. There are three reasons why I'm giving 13 benefit of the doubt. 1.) No Julie Roberts, therefore no clash of bad chemisty between Roberts and Clooney. 2.) No Catherine Zeta-Jones, therefore no clash of bad chemisty between Zeta-Jones and Pitt. She should have stayed in films with Antonio Banderas. And 3.) Al Pacino is the bad guy, quite possibly the best casting out of all of them.

Even half of these top last summer, where Harry Potter, Pirates 2, and Cars were the biggest hits at the box office. Keep in mind, Pirates 3 and whatever Harry Potter we're on (Order of the Pheonix), are sure to keep this summer as big as the last.

In addition to this, we see the obvious: sequels are on the rise. Not just in the second installments, but in series. Frankly, I believe this is good. Most movies are marketed and made to either make a profit or flop within the weekend. Here, however, the studios have taken what they know sells, and turned it into year-after-year marketing... and it's working. If you notice above, all of the third installments (minus Rush Hour 3) are very, very big budget films that have almost no doubt they'll live up to their promises. The studios have taken a turn of placing plenty of money on the few good chances they have instead of funding many films they are unsure of, and we're looking forward to this summer more than the last.

One area for extra attention is at Die Hard 4. Bruce Willis' John Mclane is the only familiar face. Added in is a facelift of characters including Accepted's Justin Long and Clerks' Kevin Smith. Usually, I'd say we're tired of the series more than we were tired of Mission Impossible 3, barely made a profit. Bruce Willis has taken a turn since walking through Armageddon. In the surprisingly suspenseful 16 Blocks, Hostage, and the Sin City short "That Yellow Bastard," Willis has shown us he can still play the burnt-out cop and keep us coming to the films. A reprisal of the Willis' original burnt-out cop may be just what the action genre needs right now.

F4: Rise of the Silver Surfer looks promising from the trailers and from the fact it doesn't have to go into backstory, which kills most comicbook movies. However, it's going to learn the hard way it's easier to lose fans than to get them, and they didn't have that many to begin with. Younger audiences, comicbook nerds, and some attracted from the trailer ("does Johnny die?") will come, but those that left the first F4 disappointed won't show up again, and the sequel, however improved from the original, won't be better on the bottom line.

I'll tell you updates as they come through the summer, but I believe I've written more than enough for one night.

Thanks,
Jack