Box Office Prediction: Spiderman 3 vs. Pirates 3

In 2006, it wasn't hard to guess the top two films. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dean Man's Chest took the cake without question, almost doubling it's runner-up, Cars. Not far behind Cars was X-Men:The Last Stand. Then came The DaVinci Code, Superman Returns, and Ice Age: The Meltdown. After that, there's gap.

Whether you liked it or hated it, the first three tell us something about what sells. Pirates 2 showed us what's bankable and leaves an expectation, both in sales and in entertainment, for its third movie in the series. Cars shows us quality work. Of the top six, it's the only one that's not an adaptation or sequel of some kind. While it doesn't live up to Finding Nemo or necessarily Toy Story, it ranked two for 2006, proving you don't have to be groundbreaking or big name to make a movie. X-Men 3 was the exact opposite of those two. It relied on it's name, and without it, it would have flopped. But it shows the marketability of a name. Even if we know, for example, the next Harry Potter is going to be a waste, it will still sell, and sell well.

For 2007, I'm going ahead and make a bet for the top two films of the year. As of today (3-18-07), I'm betting on Pirates of the Carribbean: At World's End to take the top selling spot and Spiderman 3 to take the second. More or less on a limb, I'll go ahead and say 300 is going to fall securely in the "big hits," ranking in the top ten selling movies of the year, and not in 9th or 10th.

Now, this is not without reason. I'm going on more than gut instinct. Both are the third in a series. Before putting my finger on these two, I checked there numbers in the previous movies of their respective series. Spiderman 2 grossed in theaters at $373 million, while Pirates 2 grossed at $423 million. Their opening weekends were both record-breaking, but Pirates 2's weekend still beat Spiderman 2's by $20 million.

Another factor, which may be for competition, is that Universal is releasing Spiderman 3 on May 4th, while Disney is releasing Pirates 3 on May 25th, a mere three weekends away. Spiderman 3 could have easily won those three weekends as number one at the box office, and been more than strong competition for the fourth weekend, but Pirates 3 is almost certainly going to take number one on it's opening weekend. With Pirates 3 taking the spotlight away from Spiderman 3 a weekend early, I'm almost certain Pirates 3 is going to be the number one seller for the year.

Timing is almost everything. This is what happened to Click in the summer of 2006. Click came out a weekend before Pirates 2, and as I blogged then, it was the best pre-Pirates movie. Click fell in the Top Ten, between Talledega Nights and Mission Impossible III. However, Talledga Nights came out clearly after Pirates 2, and MI3 came out in early May, two months before Pirates 2. Click didn't want to compete against Will Farrell fans, spliting those going to see comedies. Regrettably, early in the year belonged to child comedies, cheap horror, and a few action movies. DaVinci Code and Cars didn't leave Click a better option.

This is, on a smaller level, where Spiderman 3 has been placed.

With all things considered, mark my words.

1.) Pirates 3
2.) Spiderman 3

Enjoy.

RTG
Red Tie Guy